Predicting the Oscars or Winners...whatever you prefer

This is pentacle point of the week in which all critics and reviewers really start to discuss the possible winners of the 2009 Oscars for the 2008 year. I have done some research of this as well as give my own opinions of what could possibly be the winners. I may not be a certified critic but I have seen my fare share of films throughout my life as well as this years Oscar nominees. I'll be seeing a few tonight with a special someone that I love. OK, nuf mushy mushy.


The list I'm about to go through could help you fill out those ballots we have circulating around town for our '1st Annual Predict the Oscars at Village 8.' Prizes are the finish line and here is what we've got lined up for you: 1st Place- $50 Gift Card to Apex Theatres, 2nd Place- $30 Gift Card to Apex Theatres, & 3rd Place- The 81st Oscars Poster & 'Best Picture' winner poster. If you need a ballot, don't hesitate to ask us for one cause I can send it through e-mail to you, and if for some reason you can't drop it off at the theatre you can always fax it or e-mail it back to us. Now if you don't live in Louisville, KY or nowhere near it you can enter the contest for fun, but I'm afraid prizes might be of little use to you. Let's get to it. First off, you can't really go wrong with picking Slumdog Millionaire just for about everything; I wouldn't advise it but you can't go wrong with it because it's going to win a lot of awards. Asterisks are my picks!


Best Picture
The Reader
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire *
Frost/Nixon
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
--Favorite: Slumdog Millionaire
--Dark Horses: Milk or Frost/Nixon
--My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire. Well it is the favorite and it's fantastic. Plus it's been winning everything especially a lot of Best Picture awards.

Best Director
The Reader- Stephen Daldry
Milk- Gus Van Zant
Slumdog Millionaire- Danny Boyle *
Frost/Nixon- Ron Howard
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- David Fincher
--Favorite: Danny Boyle
--Dark Horses: Gus Van Zant or Ron Howard
--My Pick: Danny Boyle. Boyle has been a favorite of mine for a long time now in his directing career and I'm convinced that he'll finally be recognized by the Academy for being such a great director. I do however love David Fincher since his career began, but if an upset were to occur it would be Gus Van Zant for Milk. He has won quite a few awards already for his directing of Milk.

Best Actress
Rachel Getting Married- Anne Hathaway
Changeling- Angelina Jolie
Frozen River- Melissa Leo
Doubt- Meryl Streep
The Reader- Kate Winslet *
--Favorite: Kate Winslet
--Dark Horses: Anne Hathaway or Meryl Streep
--My Pick: Kate Winslet. She swept the Actress categories at the Globes and hasn't yet won an Oscar in her previous 5 nods over the years. Meryl as enough of them. Give it to Kate not because of that reason, but she does deserve it.

Best Actor
Milk- Sean Penn
The Visitor- Richard Jenkins
The Wrestler- Mickey Rourke *
Frost/Nixon- Frank Langella
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- Brad Pitt
--Favorite: Sean Penn
--Dark Horses: Mickey Rourke & Frank Langella (did win the Tony Award for his performance of this character on Broadway).
--My Pick: Mickey Rourke. Well frankly he deserves this. Not just because of his comeback performance of his career, but because he was excellent! Sean Pean will probably win but he has an Oscar already. Give it to Mickey please!

Best Supporting Actress
Doubt- Amy Adams
Vicky Cristina Barcelona- Penelope Cruz *
Doubt- Viola Davis
The Wrestler- Marisa Tomei
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- Taraji P. Henson
--Favorite: Penelope Cruz
--Dark Horses: Marisa Tomei & Viola Davis
--My Pick: Penelope Cruz. This category as been extremely difficult for me the past few weeks since Kate Winslet was not apart of this category. Penelope Cruz was not my original pick for a long time, but she has been warming up to me since I saw Vicky Cristina Barcelona. While Viola Davis's performance was good I still don't think she'll win because of screen time. If I were to officially pick a dark horse though Taraji P. Henson would be my pick cause this is who I had winning most of the time.

Best Supporting Actor
The Dark Knight- Heath Ledger *
Tropic Thunder- Robert Downey Jr.
Doubt- Philip Seymour Hoffman
Milk- Josh Brolin
Revolutionary Road- Michael Shannon
--Favorite: Heath Ledger
--Dark Horses: Philip Seymour Hoffman or Josh Brolin
--My Pick: Heath Ledger. As it should be. It would be the biggest upset in Oscars history if Heath doesn't win this. I read somewhere it's 50:1 odds that Heath will win on the Vegas line, which is a great ratio. I wonder if the other 4 nominees will even bother to show up to the Oscars?

Best Original Screenplay
Milk *
In Bruges
Happy-Go-Lucky
Wall-E
Frozen River
--Favorite: Milk
--Dark Horses: Wall-E or In Bruges
--My Pick: Milk. Simply because a lot of experts are picking this one. I would love to see Wall-E win this one. It was my original pick, but I just have this feeling Milk will take this win.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Slumdog Millionaire *
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Doubt
--Favorite: Slumdog Millionaire
--Dark Horses: Benjamin Button or The Reader
--My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire. And why not? It was a really good script the more I think about it. Benjamin Button sometimes felt a little too forced, but it will be surprising if Slumdog does not win this one either. If this wins this category it's chances of winning Best Picture just got even greater because you can't have a movie without a script.

Best Animated Film
Bolt
Kung-Fu Panda
Wall-E *
--Favorite: Wall-E
--Dark Horses: Wall-E or Kung Fu Panda (it did win an award over Wall-E from what I've heard)
--My Pick: Wall-E. I think obvious. Some wondered if Wall-E should have been nominated for Best Picture making it the first animated film to receive such an honor; this should be the first hint that it will win. It's Pixar too which wins just about every time it has a film in the Oscars.

Best Foreign Film
The Class
Waltz With Bashir *
Departures
Revanche
The Baader Meinhof Complex
--Favorite: The Class & Waltz With Bashir
--Dark Horses: Waltz With Bashir & The Class
--My Pick: Waltz With Bashir. It won Best Documentary at the Globes, so why is it in this category? Probably because of it's creativeness and the producers probably thought they had a better chance at winning Best Foreign at the Oscars rather the Documentary as well as Best Foreign Film is better marketing for winning. It's Sony Picture Classics v.s. Sony Picture Classics. But it's between The Class & Waltz With Bashir. Choose wisely!

Best Documentary
The Garden
Encounters at the End of the World
Trouble the Water
Man On Wire *
The Betrayal
--Favorite: Man On Wire
--Dark Horses: Trouble the Water or Encounters at the End of the World
--My Pick: Man On Wire. It was a good documentary. Not my fave documentary, but I'm picking this simply because everybody else is. Encounters is visually good, but sometimes I can't take Werner Herzog seriously when he asks somewhat humorous questions or makes some strange statements; frankly I was surprised it got nominated. Trouble the Water is what the fans want to see win because of Hurricane Katrina. It's hard to see some of these films because some are not yet available for viewing or have been released very limited in theatres.

Best Editing
Slumdog Millionaire *
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
--Favorite: Slumdog Millionaire
--Dark Horse: The Dark Knight or Milk
--My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire. It's up for Best Picture that's why. Plus I love editing and I thought The Dark Knight should win this, but it is quite long which long films generally don't win this category much. So it's Slumdog's to lose.

Best Cinematography
Slumdog Millionaire *
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Changeling
--Favorite: Slumdog Millionaire
--Dark Horses: The Dark Night or The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
--My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire. Of course I would pick this. But if I were to officially pick the Oscars, The Dark Knight would be my winner.

Best Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
--Favorite: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
--Dark Horses: The Dark Knight
--My Pick: Curious Case of Benjamin Button. But I keep going back and forth between The Dark Knight & Benjamin. The Dark Knight was just more visually better in it's artistic value because it's realistic and Benjamin Button uses a lot of CGI, but it's convincing. This one is a hard to pick, but I'll stick with Benjamin Button.

Best Costume Design
The Duchess *
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Revolutionary Road
--Favorite: The Duchess
--Dark Horses: Benjamin Button or Milk
--My Pick: The Duchess. Hands down should win. Generally period pieces usually win these categories anyways, but the Duchess was all about fashion back in the day and designed a lot of her own stuff. How could this not win this category?

Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
--Favorite: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
--Dark Horses: The Dark Knight
--My Pick: Benjamin Button. Fantastic make-up in this film. The Dark Knight just attributes to Heath Ledger in make-up.

Best Music Score
Slumdog Millionaire *
Defiance
Milk
Wall-E
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
--Favorite: Slumdog Millionaire
--Dark Horses: Wall-E & Defiance
--My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire. This score stood out to me. However, The Dark Knight should have been nominated in this category in which I would have picked that, but it's not so I can't.

Best Song
Down to Earth- Wall-E *
Jai Ho- Slumdog Millionaire
O Saya- Slumdog Millionaire
--Favorite: Jai Ho- Slumdog Millionaire
--Dark Horses: Down to Earth- Wall-E
--My Pick: Down to Earth- Wall-E. Generally when a film has more than one song in this category it doesn't win. This is first year that they scaled this category down to 3 nods instead of 5. While I LOVE 'Jai Ho' I just have this feeling 'Down to Earth' will win giving Peter Gabriel a win.

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
--Favorite: Benjamin Button
--Dark Horses: The Dark Knight or Iron Man
--My Pick: Benjamin Button. It's great CGI for a drama. But what a category. I think all 3 of these films should win this. Dark Knight uses realistic effects and Iron Man was just flat out amazing in it's effects. It's hard to decide, but Benjamin Button is the drama of the bunch and action films tend not to win most of the time.

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight *
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted
--Favorite: The Dark Knight
--Dark Horses: Iron Man or Wall-E
--My Pick: The Dark Knight. Another category with deserving films, but The Dark Knight should win this with I think Slumdog & Iron Man being a close second.

Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight *
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Wanted
--Favorite: The Dark Knight
--Dark Horses: Benjamin Button or Slumdog Millionaire
--My Pick: The Dark Knight. Should sweep the sound departments. Sound so key in this film. I never really thought Animation films should be nominated in these kinds of categories because sound is a given in a computer creation film. It's more impressive to get a great sound effect in live-action films.

Best Short Live-Action
Auf der Stercke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
Pig
New Boy
Spielzugland (Toyland) *
--Favorite: Spielzugland (Toyland)
--Dark Horses: Pig
--My Picks: Spielzugland (Toyland). I only picked this because that's what is being picked by most experts. It's hard to see Short films especially ones that get nominated for the Oscars.

Best Short Documentary
The Conscience of Nhem En *
The Final Inch
Simle Pinki
The Witness- From the Balcony of Room 306
--Favorite: The Witness- From the Balcony of Room 306
--Dark Horses: Conscience of Nhem En or Final Inch
--My Pick: Conscience of Nhem En. This is a complete toss up! Experts are picking between The Witness & The Conscience. My gut tells me to pick The Witness because it's sounds better as a title. Do what you will with this one.

Best Short Animated
La Maison de Petits Cubes
Lavatory- Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto *
This Way Up
--Favorite: Prestro
--Dark Horses: Lavatory-Lovestory
--My Pick: Presto. Once again I'm going by most experts pick, but Presto just sounds like a winner. From the first time I saw the name I said to myself 'Presto!'


Well, there you have it. All 24 categories broken down for you in what could win or should win. It's up to you though to go with your gut instinct. Experts have been wrong before. In fact I don't know anybody has ever really guessed all 24 right or all categories right in the history of guessing them. This should be fun though to find out, and I can't wait to yell at the screen claiming WRONG! YOU PICKED THE WRONG ONE! (aka - Gangs of New York & Saving Private Ryan; Transformers for Visual Effects & Sound). Good Luck though.


--LouEx